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Amazon's high growth, high tech segments propel its profits, while traditional segments plod along

Published
24 Jun 25
Views
831
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KiwiInvest's Fair Value
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1Y
22.7%
7D
5.2%

Author's Valuation

US$227.147.6% undervalued intrinsic discount

KiwiInvest's Fair Value

Amazon is a company of two sides - A high tech, high margin side, comprising its AWS, Advertising and subscription services segments; and its more traditionally known low margin, high volume stores and third-party seller segments.

These two sides form a cohesive whole. The Amazon online store motivates customers to purchase subscriptions and hosts its advertising. AWS underpins the functioning of the online store, but is also easy to integrate with for Amazon's many third-party sellers, encouraging adoption.

However, the different sides have different growth prospects. The high margin side will continue to experience high (15%+ annual) growth, while maintaining its relatively high profit margin (~30-40%), leading to strong profit expansion for Amazon as a whole.

Whereas the low margin, high volume side of Amazon will continue to grow at its fairly steady pace (5-10% annually) and continue to be limited by its low profit margin (<5%). Despite that, Amazon's unique business mix will result in overall yearly revenue gains of ~9% and net profit margins of ~15%, leading to revenues of ~$1T and earnings of ~$150B in 5 years.

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Disclaimer

The user KiwiInvest holds no position in NasdaqGS:AMZN. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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The #1 Go-To Business for Retail

Amazon offers a variety of products and services, not to mention they're a very competitive company that wants to become the #1 GO-TO BUSINESS for retail (Monopoly hungry machine) Books, Music, Videotapes Apparel, Baby product, and Consumer Electronics Health and Personal Care items Industrial and Scientific supplies Kitchen items, Jewelry, Watches Lawn and Garden Items Music Instruments, Sporting goods, and Tools Automotive items, and toys/games Services it offers such as Online shopping In-Person shopping Fresh produce delivery Primer membership which includes Unlimited music, shows, movies, with limited advertising Access to over 2 million ad-free songs Access to free games, in-game content, and a channel subscription to Twitch Access to thousands of e-books, audio books, and magazines Amazon live, where you can watch and shop deals Let's also not forget Amazon's next targets for the future of improving its Business into becoming the #1 Go-To Business for retail Amazon aims to offer a more integrated and seamless shopping experience through advancements in technology like AI, robotics, and drone delivery , while heavily focusing on sustainability by expanding its use of electric vehicles and carbon-free energy, further solidifying its presence in the grocery sector with Amazon Fresh, and continuing to prioritize fast and efficient delivery options across various product categories, including international markets. Amazon is currently actively exploring and expanding into sectors like healthcare (including telemedicine and online pharmacy), autonomous delivery (drone and self-driving vehicles), financial services (payments and potential banking), artificial intelligence and machine learning, the Internet of Things (IoT) through Alexa-enabled devices, and potentially even the luxury goods market , aiming to disrupt various industries with its established logistics and technology capabilities; essentially looking to become a more comprehensive "everything store" across different sectors.
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